Valuation and Multi-scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Zhengzhou City.

Human activities and natural resource changes have exerted considerable impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Zhengzhou City. In this study, the standard equivalent factor, which was revised according to the basic land-use data of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, was adopted combined with the patch-generation land-use change simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the land-use data of Zhengzhou in three scenarios (nature development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection) in the year 2030. In this way, the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value was analyzed and forecast. Results of the modeling simuation showed that main land-use pattern of Zhengzhou was cultivated land and construction land in 1990-2020, and the dynamic degree of construction land-use area reached the apex (9.85%) from 2000 to 2010; During the period between 1990 and 2020, the area of low ESV in Zhengzhou was distributed in a "lamellar " form, accounting for 65.19% in 2020, and during the time the increased area being up to 1 339.58 km², the areas of median and slightly high ESV were distributed in the form of "secondary nuclear and tertiary", and the area of high ESV accounted for 3.59%; ESV of Zhengzhou decrease by 1.391 9 billion yuan during this period, the gain of ESV mainly came from the conversion of cultivated land to water bodies, while the loss od ESV was caused by the conversion of forest land to construction land, forest land to farmland and waterbodies to construction land. With respect to the above three scenarios, in the ecological protection scenario the variation amplitude of land use area was the smallest; ESV decreased in the natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios; and ESV increased by 123 million yuan in ecological protection scenario, with the "cold point" concentration being more obvious. It is expected that the results of this study would provide positive guidance for the territorial planning and ecological protection of Zhengzhou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]