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The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy precipitation events across scales.

Authors :
Xiaoxiang Guan
Dung Viet Nguyen
Voit, Paul
Merz, Bruno
Heistermann, Maik
Vorogushyn, Sergiy
Source :
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions; 8/22/2024, p1-18, 18p
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

We assess the ability of a regional weather generator to represent the extremity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) across spatial and temporal scales. To this end, we implement the multi-site non-stationary Regional Weather Generator (nsRWG) for the area of Germany and generate 100 sets of synthetic daily precipitation data spanning 72 years. The weather extremity index (WEI) and its recent cross-scale modification (xWEI) are applied to quantify the cross-scale extremity of synthetic and observed HPEs and to compare their distributions. The results show that the nsRWG excels in replicating the extremity patterns for almost all 7 durations (ranging from 1 to 7 days) considered. The frequency of small-scale 1-day rainfalls is however slightly overestimated. nsRWG aptly reproduces the potential influential areas of HPEs, whether of short or long duration. It is capable of generating precipitation events mirroring the extremity patterns observed during past disaster-causing HPEs in Germany, while simultaneously accommodating their variations. This study demonstrates the potential of the nsRWG for simulating HPE-related hazard and assessing flood risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subjects

Subjects :
WEATHER
HAZARDS

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
21959269
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
179175763
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143