Development on Surrogate Models for Predicting Plume Evolution Features of Groundwater Contamination with Natural Attenuation.

Predicting the key plume evolution features of groundwater contamination are crucial for assessing uncertainty in contamination control and remediation, while implementing detailed complex numerical models for a large number of scenario simulations is time-consuming and sometimes even impossible. This work develops surrogate models with an effective and practicable pathway for predicting the key plume evolution features, such as the distance of maximum plume spreading, of groundwater contamination with natural attenuation. The representative various scenarios of the input parameter combinations were effectively generated by the orthogonal experiment method and the corresponding numerical simulations were performed by the reliable Groundwater Modeling System. The PSO-SVM surrogate models were first developed, and the accuracy was gradually enhanced from 0.5 to 0.9 under a multi-objective condition by effectively increasing the sample data size from 54 sets to 78 sets and decreasing the input variables from 25 of all the considered parameters to a smaller number of the key controlling factors. The statistical surrogate models were also constructed with the fitting degree all above 0.85. The achieved findings provide effective generic surrogate models along with a scientific basis and investigation approach reference for the environmental risk management and remediation of groundwater contamination, particularly with limited data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]