A nomogram‐based predictive model for tooth survival in Chinese patients with periodontitis: An 11‐year retrospective cohort study.

Aim: To develop a nomogram‐based predictive model of tooth survival by comprehensively analysing clinical and radiographic risk factors of tooth loss (TL). Materials and Methods: In this study, 3447 teeth of 131 subjects who underwent non‐surgical periodontal treatment were examined retrospectively within a mean follow‐up period of 11.6 years. The association of risk factors including clinical and radiographic parameters with TL was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram‐based predictive model was developed, and its validation and discriminatory ability were analysed. Results: In all, 313 teeth were lost in 94 patients in this study (overall tooth loss [OTL] 9.08%; 0.21 teeth/patient/year). Male, heavy smoking, molar teeth, probing depth (PD), attachment loss (AL), tooth mobility and radiographic bone loss were significantly associated with TL (p <.05). A gradient effect of tooth mobility on TL increased from degree I to III versus none (p <.0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.865. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance and high net benefit, respectively. Conclusions: Adopting a specific nomogram could facilitate the prediction of tooth survival and the development of tailored treatment plans in Chinese patients with advanced periodontitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]