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How tight are the limits to land and water use? -- Combined impacts of food demand and climate change.
- Source :
- Advances in Geosciences; 2005, Vol. 4, p23-28, 6p
- Publication Year :
- 2005
-
Abstract
- In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- LAND use
WATER use
FOOD production
CLIMATE change
AGRICULTURE
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16807340
- Volume :
- 4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Advances in Geosciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 18873499
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-4-23-2005