DO MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES CONTAIN ANY USEFUL INFORMATION FOR PREDICTING CHANGES IN HOSPITALITY STOCK INDICES?

This article examines the relationship between macroeconomic and the hospitality stock variables using the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach. The empirical results based on the U.S. data show that the hospitality stock indices largely follow an auto-regressive process, and they are not entirely independent from some key macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the BOND variable explains a substantial proportion of the forecast error variance among the stock indices for restaurants, lodging, and casinos. The consumer price index, money supply, and industrial production variables, however provide a relatively smaller contribution toward explaining the forecast error variance in these hospitality stock indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]