Crytic period analysis model of hydrological process and its application.

The article focuses on the development and use of the proposed model to analyse the crytic period of hydrological process. The crytic period model was developed into several steps including the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test and the use of logarithm transformation to reduce the heteroscedasticity for the time series that cannot pass through ARCH effect test. The constructed models were used to analyse the hydrological processes of streamflow of the gauging stations of Alaer and Xinquman along Tarim River in China. A series of cycle analysis methods including variance analysis and spectrum analysis was studied to identify and extract period components. The reliability of the crytic period model used was attested by the validity of variance analysis.