THE ANALYSIS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY.

The contemporary models of real estate investment analysis all are grossly inadequate and are incapable of generating realistic estimates of the over-all rate of return on a real estate investment and the risk of that investment. This paper has presented a method by which an analyst may realistically quantify his intuitive beliefs about the possible future profitability of a real estate property and may then have these intuitive beliefs transformed into statistically reliable estimates of the results of the investment by the use of a computerized analytical model which relies upon Monte Carlo simulation and statistical tests of validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]