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A Seasonal ARIMA Model of Tourism Forecasting: The Case of Taiwan.

Authors :
Chang, Yu-Wei
Liao, Meng-Yuan
Source :
Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research; Jun2010, Vol. 15 Issue 2, p215-221, 7p, 4 Charts, 4 Graphs
Publication Year :
2010

Abstract

This paper aims to determine suitable SARIMA models to forecast the monthly outbound tourism departures of three major destinations from Taiwan to Hong Kong, Japan and the USA, respectively. The HEGY test is used to identify the deterministic seasonality in the data. The mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) is used to measure forecast accuracy. A low MAPE demonstrates the adequacy of the fitted SARIMA models. The results indicate that all series with first non-seasonal difference are needed to obtain the deterministic trend in outbound tourism series in Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
10941665
Volume :
15
Issue :
2
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
48835451
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/10941661003630001