Explanation of Birth Rate Changes over Space and Time: A Study of Taiwan.

In this paper I investigate approaches to the interpretation of 6 years of aggregate economic and demographic data for the populations of 361 small administrative regions of Taiwan. My purpose is to obtain more information on the dynamic structure of a model of fertility variations, disequilibria, and changes that will make better sense of population problems and policy options in low-income countries. Although not wholly unexpected, given the scarcity of analytical tools and the shortage of data relevant to this task, few firm conclusions emerge. Age-specific birth rates for a cross section of small communities over time were analyzed to infer the responsiveness of birth rates in Taiwan to changing economic, demographic, and policy constraints. There are sound reasons to also consider information on individual reproductive behavior over time, since most models of fertility determination presuppose a relation between fertility and the number of living children parents have and the immediate and lifetime circumstances of the parents. Lacking longitudinal data for individuals, I have explored two methods for extracting information about the dynamic process of birth-rate determination from an integrated treatment of a time series of aggregate cross sections. Priority should be given to extending the static equilibrium theory of household time allocation and decision making to allow the introduction of dynamic elements of innovation, search and information costs, the biological and behavioral constraints on the supply of children, and the longitudinal complexities of intergenerational savings and transfers. Theoretical progress in these directions and more extensive empirical analyses of aggregate and individual time series might improve substantially our understanding of both the economic and demographic behavior of the household sector during the process of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]