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Civil War Contagion and Neighboring Interventions.

Authors :
Kathman, Jacob D.
Source :
International Studies Quarterly; Dec2010, Vol. 54 Issue 4, p989-1012, 24p, 3 Charts, 2 Graphs
Publication Year :
2010

Abstract

Extant models of civil war intervention have difficulty accounting for the intervention decisions of third-party states that share a border with an ongoing civil war. This is troubling, as contiguous third parties account for a large proportion of interventions. I demonstrate that the tendency of civil wars to spread geographically pose neighbor states with threats to their well-being that are faced by no other type of intervener in the international system. Destruction, regime stability, even state survival are threatened by the prospect of civil war infection. I argue that neighboring third parties are thus motivated to intervene in an attempt to thwart war diffusion across their own borders. Through an analysis of civil war prevalence, I generate a measure of each state's yearly likelihood of being infected by a proximate civil war's hostilities. I then use this measure to explain neighboring interventions in civil wars of the post-WWII period. The results support my theorized expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
00208833
Volume :
54
Issue :
4
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
International Studies Quarterly
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
55595121
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00623.x