SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A NECESSITY IN WATER PLANNING.

BSTRACT In water planning activities, major emphasis has been placed on the development of procedures for devising 'optimum plans.' These plans are defined as those which meet prespecified demands for water at 'minimum cost.' However, all plans are developed subject to postulated conditions regarding the state of the physical system and of nature. Because planning takes place in a dynamic and uncertain environment in which postulated conditions are known to change, it is imperative that the planner be apprised in the planning phase of the effect of changes which can occur. Using 'this information, a planner can temper his judgment with a knowledge of the effect of the uncertainty resulting from changes in the system state variables. This paper presents results of the use of a computer simulation and optimization model to quantify possible variations in system response which could occur as a result of uncertainty in the postulated physical and economic conditions under which the proposed water development system was to perform. The possible effects of these variable responses on planning decision-making is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]