Explaining Declining Social Assistance Participation Rates: A Longitudinal Analysis of Manitoba Administrative and Population Data.

This paper extends analyses of the declining social assistance participation rate in Canada since the mid-1990s using rich Manitoba administrative data for the period since 1999. We examine trends in Manitoba to mid-2008, separately analyze the entry and continuation rates, and include for the first time information about the growing number of adults with a disability on social assistance. Our results show that the declining participation rate is due entirely to a declining entry rate and that the continuation rate has actually risen since 1999, mainly because of the dramatic growth in the number of adults with a disability on social assistance but also because of the rising duration of spells on assistance by those without a disability. Our results raise questions about the policy, pursued in all jurisdictions in Canada, that keeps social assistance benefits low to discourage welfare use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]