Agricultural Productivity in a Newly Settled Region: The Case of Manchuria.

The purpose of this paper is to show that in spite of the favorable factors, the Schultz hypothesis remains plausible for a newly settled region; that is, no significant growth of agricultural productivity may be expected for the region in the long run if production is based on traditional factors. To support the argument an attempt is made to derive an agricultural productivity index through constructing aggregate output and input indices for the northeastern region of China—Manchuria. The region has an area approximately equal to that of the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota combined. After it was open to immigration in the late nineteenth century, agricultural population rose from half a million in the 1880s to 20 million in the mid-1920s and 34 million in 1957. The increase was largely derived from the expansion of traditional inputs. Manchuria, therefore, provided a typical case of newly settled traditional agriculture. Section II outlines the approach employed to derive the productivity index for Manchurian agriculture. Section III presents the principal findings. An interpretation of these findings is contained in section IV. Section V is a short summary of conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]