STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF THE AUSTRALIAN TRADE CYCLE.

This paper is an attempt to apply to Australian statistics certain techniques of the National Bureau of Economic Research for detecting stages of the trade cycle. A major objective of this type of analysis is to reduce the time between a turning point and its identification. The results do not provide a mechanical procedure for interpreting movements in statistical series. This is true not only for current analysis but also when the techniques are applied in historical studies; they do not, for example, eliminate the difficulties of interpreting the period 1956-58. However, the task of subjective judgement is facilitated by the appropriate processing and classification of the statistics. The most highly developed of the National Bureau's techniques is the distinction between "leading", "coincident" and "lagging" series, according to the usual relationship between the cycles of specific series and the general business cycle. Another device is the diffusion index, a summary measure pertaining either to groups of economic series or to components of significant aggregates. Examples of both types of diffusion indexes, which show the percentage of components rising in any particular month, are given in this paper. Their logical justification is that they tend to move in advance of the general business cycle and therefore give advance warning of turning points. Other techniques devised by the National Bureau are not considered in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]