Impact of technology advances on China's CO2 emission reduction.

Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate change. To deal with these changes, the impact of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be assessed. In this paper, a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), which is well known and accepted widely, has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction, assimilation and verification. Based on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050, the economic impact of the programs is examined. The results indicate that when technology advances, Chinese CO₂ emission, climate loss, and the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature will all decrease. It is assumed that in 2010, the CO₂ emission is 20% lower than in 2005, CO₂ emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000, the accumulative CO₂ emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC, and the atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04°C respectively from 2000 to 2050. The accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar, which only accounts for 6% of the global total benefits. However, the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance scenario. The decrease of the CO₂ emission control rate is 1% in cooperation policy while 4.6% in non-cooperation policy, which would relieve China's burden in the control of CO₂ total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO₂ emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]