Age, Period, Cohort and Early Mortality; An Analysis of Adult Mortality in Italy.

This article presents a study to increase the understanding of the evolution of adult mortality in Italy. The second objective is to investigate the relationship between early and adult mortality, on the hypothesis that the life experiences which influence the former during the youngest years also affect the latter later in life. Previous analyses of Italian mortality over the last century have suggested interesting links between period and cohort mortality,' in particular the delayed effects of certain dramatic events, such as the two world wars. It has been suggested that the persistent higher mortality of the cohorts involved in the First World War was the result of a genera! weakening due to exposure to high health risks and to particularly unfavorable living conditions during the war. Similarly, the events of the first years of life-which are known to have a major influence on the subsequent health and development of an individual-may be important factors in determining the level of cohort mortality. It is possible for example, that unfavorable conditions during infancy and childhood are a handicap for future survival. An alternative hypothesis would be that a cohort which has lost its weakest members early in their lives has been preselected and is in a better position later.