Impact of global change on coastal hypoxia.

Coastal hypoxia, the depletion of oxygen concentration in coastal waters, is becoming more prominent on a global scale. Changes in climate and nutrient loadings are two aspects of global change that are expected to profoundly impact coastal hypoxia. We investigated the role of these drivers on the evolution of hypoxia in a stratified, temperate coastal system using a one-dimensional model. The model couples three submodels, describing the physical characteristics, the pelagic ecosystem and benthic diagenesis. The model is calibrated for the Central North Sea but the model approach is generic, and can be applied in stratified coastal ecosystems. Our results indicate that the projected changes in climatological conditions for the North Sea over the next 100 yr will increase the risk of hypoxia. On average the oxygen concentration is predicted to decrease by 17 µM, mostly due to a reduced solubility at higher water temperature (responsible for 65% of the decrease). Increased stratification (22 %) and enhanced biological rates due to higher water temperature (13 %) also affect the future oxygen concentration. Nutrient loadings also have a strong effect on the occurrence of hypoxia. Decreasing nutrient concentrations strongly decreases the probability of hypoxic events, stressing the importance of continued extensive eutrophication management to mitigate the effect of increased temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]