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Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast.
- Source :
- PLoS ONE; Dec2012, Vol. 7 Issue 12, p1-13, 13p
- Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- CLIMATE change
MARINE organisms
MARINE biology
SPECIES
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 7
- Issue :
- 12
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 84710582
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294