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Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: regional and global model predictions.
- Source :
- Climate Dynamics; Feb2013, Vol. 40 Issue 3/4, p551-568, 18p
- Publication Year :
- 2013
-
Abstract
- A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4-2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09307575
- Volume :
- 40
- Issue :
- 3/4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Climate Dynamics
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 85210879
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1605-8