Diversity Implications from an Occupation Human Resource Forecast for the Year 2000.

This article discusses the labor market conditions that will affect labor market diversity in the U.S. in 2000. It examines diversity using three well known representation measures, accounting method and forecasting formula. Previous forecasts of the Year 2000 overemphasize the differences in labor markets from the base period, rather than recognizing the underlying dynamics of change. Such forecasts, tend to show big changes in diversity that occur at a future time. Moving from civilian labor force (CLF) and occupation labor force (OLF) data for local labor markets and occupations to available labor force (ALF ) data, broadens the view of the labor market. Specifically, many non-workers exist in local labor markets who are not counted using OLF and CLF measures. The differences between ALF and OLC/CLF measures are associated with the addition of non-worker pools across race and sex groups in the ALF calculations. Reductions in white male employment between 1980 and 1990 were recorded for nine occupations, including operatives & service, craft & mechanics and clerical. Major demand changes are expected in technician jobs in the next decade. In California, projections show hospital and health care facility staffing levels will be reduced as bed occupancy levels decrease, mergers occur and movement to managed care options increase.