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Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.
- Source :
- Disasters; Jul2014, Vol. 38 Issue 3, p610-635, 26p
- Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decisionmaking process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- DECISION making
FLOOD risk
EMERGENCY management
CRISIS management
CITIZENS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 03613666
- Volume :
- 38
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Disasters
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 97230923
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12059