A MARKOV CHAINS MODEL OF MEDICAL SPECIALTY CHOICE.

Data from 118 members of three consecutive cohorts of students at a private Southern medical school are employed to develop a discrete parameter stationary Markov chains model of the medical specialty choice process. This model was then tested on independent subsamples from the same population, generating a series of predicted specialty choices which did not differ from observed choices by more .than chance expectations. Suggestions for future research, beyond the present demonstration of the utility of a simple Markovian model of a choice process, are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]