Estimating spatiotemporal distribution of PM1 concentrations in China with satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information.

Background PM 1 might be more hazardous than PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm and ≤2.5 μm, respectively). However, studies on PM 1 concentrations and its health effects are limited due to a lack of PM 1 monitoring data. Objectives To estimate spatial and temporal variations of PM 1 concentrations in China during 2005–2014 using satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information. Methods Two types of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB), were combined. Generalised additive model (GAM) was developed to link ground-monitored PM 1 data with AOD data and other spatial and temporal predictors (e.g., urban cover, forest cover and calendar month). A 10-fold cross-validation was performed to assess the predictive ability. Results The results of 10-fold cross-validation showed R 2 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for monthly prediction were 71% and 13.0 μg/m 3 , respectively. For seasonal prediction, the R 2 and RMSE were 77% and 11.4 μg/m 3 , respectively. The predicted annual mean concentration of PM 1 across China was 26.9 μg/m 3 . The PM 1 level was highest in winter while lowest in summer. Generally, the PM 1 levels in entire China did not substantially change during the past decade. Regarding local heavy polluted regions, PM 1 levels increased substantially in the South-Western Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin region. Conclusions GAM with satellite-retrieved AOD, meteorology, and land use information has high predictive ability to estimate ground-level PM 1 . Ambient PM 1 reached high levels in China during the past decade. The estimated results can be applied to evaluate the health effects of PM 1 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]