We Are in a Period of Market Volatility.

The author assumes that most producers have a very aggressive crop insurance position in 2004. He thinks that until the trade is comfortable that acres are planted and yield is out of risk, it will be difficult for December corn to break below $2.65. The author says that although he would not be surprised to see a choppy price behavior develop through March and April for old-crop beans, he expects the final drive in this market will be during June and July when the pipeline will essentially be empty in the U.S. He says that with all the price action in corn and beans, wheat is really feeling left out of the game.