Modeling tree-growth: Assessing climate suitability of temperate forests growing in Moncayo Natural Park (Spain).

Graphical abstract Highlights • Climate influences species growth differently across altitudinal gradients. • Mixed-effects models can accurately predict tree growth. • Suitability maps are useful to design forest management actions. • Tree species could potentially extend their range. Abstract In the past few decades, temperate forests have been negatively altered by numerous anthropogenic activities and by the impact of ongoing climate change. These changes may require management actions to help preserve some forest tree species. In this sense, highly-detailed knowledge of tree growth and survival across territorial and climatic gradients will be important for forest conservation. We developed a novel approach to determine the optimal zones of forest growth and expansion through climate suitability maps, using a dense tree-ring network of four forest species in Moncayo Natural Park and high-resolution climate data. Our results showed that the mixed-effects models developed using climate data and tree size were able to predict between 65 and 80% of growth variability along the climatic gradient. All studied species were influenced by climate, and the relationship between growth and climate significantly differed along the prevailing climate gradient. Moreover, the suitability maps showed that the current species distribution is limited, and their application may serve as a tool for adaptive management in forests subjected to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]