Brazilian Cerrado and Soy moratorium: Effects on biome preservation and consequences on grain production.

• Soy Moratorium in the Legal Amazon changed the Cerrado land use. • Cerrado is responsible for 54 % of the Brazilian soybean yield. • LCM is used to model the LULC dynamics correlated with driver variables. • Scenario evaluation was performed based on spatial-temporal data. • Results show the possibility to meet soybean demand with vegetation conservation. Soy Moratorium implementation in the Legal Amazon in 2006 had consequences beyond deforestation control in the region. Among these, the influence on the dynamics in land use change in the neighbor biome, the Cerrado, is evaluated. This influence becomes especially important considering that this area accounts for 54% of Brazil's soybean production, and that the country is the world's second largest producer of the grain. This work used Land Change Modeler to study the comparison of the Moratorium influence for two scenarios: a temporal analysis of change trends prior to the implementation of this policy, for 2012; and an impact analysis on the Cerrado policy extension for 2028. The main transitions observed on the evaluated period were between Vegetation, Pasture and Agriculture classes. Driver variables of the transition between these classes were used to model the scenarios. The impact of the moratorium on changing the spatial distribution of transitions was mainly noted. For future predictions, grain yield would not be significantly impacted by the extension of the Cerrado Moratorium. Conclusions include the possibility of biome's vegetation preservation, without disregarding the economic importance of soybean for Brazil and still meeting the estimated demand for 2028. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]