The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts.

With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper examines: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR's opening; (ii) scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, addressing the various transportation systems that could evolve; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulations and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of transpolar shipping for local and Indigenous residents of communities along the TSR's entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor. • A seasonal ice-free shipping route via the North Pole may open by mid-century. • The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is shorter and deeper than the Northern Sea Route. • Development options include transshipment ports in the Bering and Fram Straits. • The TSR's environmental and socioeconomic impacts could be locally significant. • Despite rapid climate change, there is still time to prepare for the TSR's opening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]