Prediction of the effect of insulation thickness and emission on heating energy requirements of cities in the future.

• It is focused on thermal insulation of residential- and population-sourced energy demands and emission in future. • The proposed new method can be extended to other cities around the world. • The carbon footprints will respectively be 233 kg/person-year with an increase of 44% for coal of Ankara city in 2040. • The sulfur dioxide amount is 0.460 kg/year for a 41% increase in coal use in 2040. • The study can draw a clear picture for policy makers concerned about the future of the world. This study predicts the effect of insulation thickness on residential- and population-sourced energy demands and emission amounts in the future with a new method. Attempts are made to determine the future population increase amounts with the graphic method for 2018-2040. The current population of 5,600,386 in Ankara/Turkey is predicted to rise to 8,043,717 people in 2040. Additionally, the number of residences is predicted to be 1,608,743 and wall area will be 160,874,330 m². The total annual carbon dioxide amount for natural gas, coal and fuel oil is estimated to reach 916,179,309 kg/year, 1,304,690,816 kg/year, and 1,818,523,426 kg/year with 44% increase from 2018 to 2040, respectively. In 2018, the city-based heading period carbon footprints (CBHPCF) are 113.9, 162.2 and 226 kg/person-year for natural gas, coal and fuel oil, respectively. It is calculated that the CBHPCF will respectively be 163.56, 232.92 and 324.54 kg/person-year for the three fuels in 2040. The city-based heating period sulfur dioxide amount is estimated to be 0.460 kg/year for coal and 1,751 kg/person for fuel oil in 2040. Thus, the study can provide a clear picture for policy makers concerned about the future of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]