Clinical significance of postoperative skeletal relapse in the treatment of mandibular prognathism: Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

<bold>Background/purpose: </bold>Postoperative skeletal relapse is the most important issue in patients undergoing orthognathic surgery. This study aimed to investigate clinical skeletal relapse (≥2 mm) after mandibular setback surgery (intraoral vertical ramus osteotomy: IVRO) using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis.<bold>Methods: </bold>Serial cephalograms of 40 patients with mandibular prognathism were obtained at different time points: (1) before surgery (T1), (2) immediately after surgery (T2), and (3) at least with a 2-year follow-up postoperatively (T3). The menton (Me) was used as the landmark for measuring the amount of mandibular setback and postoperative skeletal relapse. Postoperative stability (T32) was divided into groups A and B by skeletal relapse ≥2 mm and <2 mm, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to determine the cut-off point for mandibular setback.<bold>Results: </bold>At the immediate surgical setback (T21), the amount of setback in group A (15.55 mm) was significantly larger than in group B (10.97 mm). Group A (T32) showed a significant relapse (4.07 mm), while group B showed a significant posterior drift (1.23 mm). The amount of setback had the highest AUC area (0.788). The cut-off point was 14.1 mm (T21) that would lead to a clinical relapse of 2 mm (T32).<bold>Conclusion: </bold>In IVRO, the postoperative mandibular positions reveal posterior drift and anterior displacement (relapse). The experience of clinical observation and patient perception of postoperative skeletal relapse was ≥2 mm. In the ROC curve analysis, the cut-off point of setback was 14.1 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]