Effects of technical advance on cobalt supply and its supply trends: A perspective of the whole industrial chains.

• Technical advance has an inverted U-shape impacts on primary supply of cobalt and makes it increase by a maximum of 10 %. • Effects of technical advance in the refining, manufacturing and recycling stages are linear promotions. • By 2030, China is expected to produce 76 % of the world's refined cobalt. • The European Union will provide the largest secondary supply in the future, followed by China, the United States and Japan. • Supply-demand contradiction could be effectively alleviated with the simultaneous development of technical advance on the supply and the demand sides. By coupling dynamic material flow analysis and econometric models, the effects of technical advance on cobalt supply in the whole industrial chains are explored. Then, its supply trends are investigated at the global and national levels. The results show that: (1) the impact of technical advance on cobalt supply in the mining stage is inverted U-shape, while in the other stages, they are linear promotions. (2) Technical advance could increase global primary supply by up to 10 % from current production capacity. By 2030, secondary and total supplies will reach 79 kt and 251 kt or even more. (3) Refined cobalt supply share of China is expected to be 76 % by 2030. The European Union will produce the largest secondary supply, followed by China, the United States and Japan. (4) With the simultaneous development of technologies in each stage, supply-demand balance could be realized under some ideal scenarios. The above findings help intuitively recognize the roles of technical advance and strengthen the determination to do it. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]