Childlessness, Only Children, and the Second Demographic Transition in Japan.

The Total Fertility Rate of Japan in 2004 was 1.3 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Was the Japanese TFR so low because of a prolonged delay of first marriages and, hence, of first and second births? Are these postponed events less likely to be made up in Japan than in the U.S.? Since the TFR is a cross-sectional measure, we use double-decrement life tables to project conditional cumulative probabilities of three events: a first marriage and two subsequent births. The data are from women ages 20-50 in the Japanese General Social Survey of 2001. After estimating the proportions of Japanese women who will reach menopause at parities of zero, one, or more than one, we compare our estimates to the proportions of U.S. women observed at these parities at ages 40-44 in 2002. A major finding is that the two lowest terminal parities will be more common in the current generation of Japanese women now of childbearing age than was true in the past (18% are projected never to bear children and 20% to bear only one child). Japanese and U.S. women will be equally likely to remain permanently childless but Japanese women will be somewhat more likely to stop with one birth. The completed parity of Japanese women should average 1.64 children, fewer than what they say they intend to bear (2.2). The implications for theory, future research, and pro-marital, pro-natal, public policy in Japan are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]