Four Decades of Neighborhood Change: The Race-Based Expectations Model in Eight Chicago Communities.

What directs neighborhood change in neighborhoods over time? We evaluate the race-based expectations model put forth by Taub, Taylor, & Duncan in their comprehensive, multi-method study (1984), using data that engages their explanations the predictors of racial change and stability in urban areas. Their theory proposes that white residents use race as a proxy for where the neighborhood is headed, therefore making investment decisions about their neighborhood based on their race-based expectations. We examine the pathways of eight Chicago neighborhoods which they predicted to integrate racially only transitionally until their white population exists, resist integration, or achieve stable racial integration. We combine two data sources for our analysis: 1) 1970-2000 Census data from the Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB) and 2) tract-level homicide data for the city of Chicago from the years 1991-2002, collected by one of our authors. The results show strong support for their model but underscore the significant limitations of black-white analyses of our increasingly diverse communities. We incorporate Latinos and Asians into the model and explain their effect as well as the effects of institutional actors, space, and crime on racial integration. We compare the eight neighborhoods to the surrounding county and discuss how this local study can inform our understanding of neighborhood change in other communities and on other scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]