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Evaluating the effect of economic fluctuations on Japanese parolees' re-incarceration using cointegration regression and error correction models.
- Source :
- Japanese Journal of Psychology; Aug2009, Vol. 80 Issue 3, p207-214, 8p, 1 Chart, 1 Graph
- Publication Year :
- 2009
-
Abstract
- Based on Cantor and Land (1985)'s theory, I tested the criminal-motivation-effect hypothesis (bad economic conditions increase crime rates with a one-year time-lag) and the criminal-opportunity-effect hypothesis (good economic conditions increase crime rates in the same year). I used Japanese time-series data (1959-2005) of male parolees' re-incarceration rates (as an indicator of crime rates) and annual average compensation rates (as an indicator of economic conditions). Based on Greenberg (2001), I used statistical models with cointegrating regression and error correction models. I found that the criminal-motivation-effect was significant as predicted. However, the trend was opposite to the prediction of the criminal-opportunity-effect hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- Chinese
- ISSN :
- 00215236
- Volume :
- 80
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Japanese Journal of Psychology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 47524692
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.4992/jjpsy.80.207