I Knew It All Along! Evaluating Time-of-Decision Measures in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign.

This paper evaluates the validity of the voter time-of-decision recall measure, and then compares the characteristics of early, campaign, and late deciders during the 2008 U.S. presidential election, in order to determine if the characteristics of these groups have changed in comparison to earlier election studies. The data come from the National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES). The findings show that the recalled time-of-decision measure severely underestimates time-of-decision, and there is strong evidence of a pre-decided majority in the American electorate. Discrepancies between recalled time-of-decision and time-of-decision as measured by the panel data suggest that recalled time-of-decision may measure a distinct concept among early deciders: openness to persuasion during the election. The concept of uncommitted early deciders is offered to describe this group, which the two methods suggest may be more open to persuasion than early or late deciders. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]