The Study of Topic Diffusion State Presentation and Trend Prediction within BBS.

Abstract: Topic diffusion is one of importance feature of BBS. Understanding topic diffusion state and trend is an effective way to manage BBS. In the paper, an improved information diffusion model is proposed. Three references are proposed to describe topic diffusion state, they are diffusion speed, diffusion wide and topic influence. The definition and calculation method are given for these references. Topic reply matrix is established to predict the number of topic replies and user who attend to diffuse topic. Based on reply matrix, the topic diffusion trend prediction method is proposed. The experiment results show that the method proposed can present topic diffusion state and predict topic diffusion trend correctly. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]