Study on Very Short-term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Methods using Ground based Cloud Image.

Abstract: Due to the fluctuating and intermittent nature of solar irradiance, the power output of PV power station fluctuates. It brings great difficulties for power output forecasting of PV power station. Traditional PV power output forecasting technologies using physical/statistical model combined with NWP failed to provide accurate results. Based on the research of on-line analysis on ground-based cloud image captured by Total Sky Imager (TSI), through the technical phases of cloud recognition, cloud blocking prediction, distortion correction, projection transformation and integration with cloud forcing analysis, the roadmap of PV very short term solar irradiance forecasting based on ground-based cloud image analysis was presented in this paper. Theoretical analysis proves that the method tends to provide reasonable accurate forecasting results and can be widely used. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]