Potential impact of climate change effects on preferences for tourism destinations. A psychological pilot study

This paper is intended to demonstrate the usefulness of a psychological experimental approach in researching the underlying processes of socio-economic impacts of the effects of an eventual climate change in the field of tourism. Tourism demand for the German coasts at the North and Baltic Seas may be influenced in some way by climate change impacts, e.g. by new preferences for holiday destinations due to changing environmental conditions (especially weather) and due to the actions taken by the tourism industry to cope with these changes. A pilot study was designed and carried out in order to develop a method to measure the sensitivity of destination choice to climate change effects and to gain first ideas of whether and how destination preferenceswill probably change. 136 subjects in 5 experimental conditions weregiven scenarios describing 'positive' or 'negative' climate change effects with and without (re)actions of the regional tourism industry.The control group received a scenario describing no changes. Subjects interest in spending a holiday at the North Sea and Baltic Sea in Germany were defined as the dependent variable. One of the crucial aspects was to check whether the applied technique is appropriate for making the situation, which is only a hypothetical and future one, sufficiently clear (make it feel 'real') to the participants in the study. The methodological approach is suitable for further (and more in depth) research: subjects had no trouble imagining the scenarios. The manipulation checks indicated differences, and differences between conditions were also found in the dependent variables. Thus, the adoptedprocedure appears promising and can be applied in future studies. Nevertheless, some improvements are recommended. Within the restricted possibilities of a pilot study, first ideas on whether and in which direction the effects of an eventual climate change may influence destination choice of tourists are presented. According to the data, climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]