Assessment the Effect of ENSO on Weather Temperature Changes Using Fuzzy Analysis (Case Study: Chabahar).

Abstract: The effects of El Nino and La Nina have been considered as the major variables in weather changes in the Middle East. This issue has been shown by regression indexes in a number of papers. The presented study has proven that the El Nino and La Nina should be added to the weather forecast variables because of their major effects. Weather forecasts could be influenced by some variables that have uncertainty, so the deterministic approaches may lead to incorrect predictions. The proposed algorithm can be used when some variables have uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach has been chosen to show the effect of El Nino and La Nina on the monthly maximum temperature. Different ENSO Indices have been proposed for El Nino or La Nina occurrences but each of them has some deficiencies. In order to overcome the drawback of using one of the ENSO Indices, the fuzzy based analysis approach has been chosen in this paper. Data from Chabahar, one of the stations in the south of Iran, has been chosen for the algorithm to be applied on. MATLAB has been used to run the algorithm on the data. The results show that El Nino and La Nina lead to major effect on the amount of monthly maximum temperature in the south of Iran. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]