A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship–ship collision.

Highlights: [•] Probabilistic model for accidental oil outflow in product tanker collision shown. [•] Bayesian network enables reasoning under uncertainty in risk assessment. [•] Integration of models estimating ship collision damage and tank arrangement. [•] Oil outflow assessment when only limited data concerning ship is available. [•] Validation framework builds confidence while highlighting uncertainty and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]