Drought induced decline could portend widespread pine mortality at the xeric ecotone in managed mediterranean pine-oak woodlands.

Highlights: [•] Predictive mortality models of one Mediterranean oak and one pine species. [•] Describe variability in the pattern of mortality and decline along climatic gradients. [•] Pine mortality and decline are partly related to enhanced drought. [•] Climate and management interact to cause oak-pine decline. [•] Pines at their xeric ecotone are threatened by global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]