Predicted and realized grain yield responses to full-sib family selection in CIMMYT maize (Zea mays L.) populations

The maize (Zea mays L.) improvement program of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) develops broad-based maize populations and, until recently, improved all of them through full-sib family selection with international testing. The purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic and genetic × environment variance components for ten of those populations and to measure expected yield improvement from full-sib selection. Mean yield ranged from 3.35–6.81 t ha^-1. For five populations the average yield in the last cycle was higher than in the initial cycles. Several populations showed no improvement or yielded less in the final cycle of selection, either because selection intensity was low or because strong selection pressure was applied simultaneously for several traits. Variation resulting from differences among family means within cycles and from interaction between families and locations within cycles were significant in all populations and cycles. Results indicate that variability among full-sib families was maintained throughout the cycles for all populations. The large s_ge²/s_g²ratio shown by most populations suggests that yield response per cycle could be maximized if the environments in which progenies are tested were subdivided and classified into similar subsets. The proportion of the predicted response realized in improved yield varied for each population.