A scoring system to predict the risk of organ/space surgical site infections after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer based on a large-scale retrospective study

A scoring system allows risk stratification of morbidity might be helpful for selecting risk-adapted interventions to improve surgical safety. Few studies have been designed to develop scoring systems to predict SSIs after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. We analyzed the records of 2364 patients who underwent laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. A logistic regression model was used to identify the determinant variables and develop a predictive score. There were 2364 patients, of whom 131 (5.5 %) developed overall SSIs, 33 (1.4 %) developed incisional SSIs, and 98 (4.1 %) developed organ/space SSIs. No significant risk factor was associated with incisional SSIs. A multivariate analysis showed the following adverse risk factors for organ/space SSIs: BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, intraoperative blood loss ≥75 ml, operation time ≥240 min, and perioperative transfusion. Each of these factors contributed 1 point to the risk score. The organ/space SSIs rates were 1.8, 3.9, 9.9, and 39.0 % for the low-, intermediate-, high-, and extremely high-risk categories, respectively (p< 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score of organ/space SSIs was 0.734. There were no statistically significant differences between the observed and predicted incidence rates for organ/space SSIs in the validation set. This validated and simple scoring system could accurately predict the risk of organ/space SSIs after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The score might be helpful in the selection of risk-adapted interventions to decrease the incidence rates of organ/space SSIs.