Thermal monitoring of volcanic effusive activity: the uncertainties and outlier detection

Thermal observations of volcanic activity when the volcano is partially covered by clouds or observed under a wide-scan angle are often removed from further analyses. In the event of a volcanic crisis, such a reduced set of data is not adequate. Even when the observation conditions are favourable, the full observation set is still required to provide decision-makers with quality information about the data. Automatic quality estimation and outlier detection was not estimated in the past. We propose to analytically define the uncertainty for individual observations based on the measurement circumstances. To additionally reduce the temporal noise of the radiant power (RP) time series we apply a Kalman Filter (KF). The KF is able to recursively analyse an unevenly sampled time series. Based on some proposed rules, it can also detect outliers. We apply the proposed methodology to the 2008–09 Etna eruption monitored by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The analysis of the results shows that the topography has a greater influence on RPthan previously considered.