The changes of climate may threat the production of Grana Padano cheese: past, recent and future scenarios

AbstractClimate and animal agriculture are interrelated processes and related foods may be threatened through changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events. The present study was aimed to investigate the climate trend over the production area of Grana Padano (GP) cheese. The area is in North of Italy, covers a total land of 46,000 km2and it is highly suited for agricultural and livestock productions. Past (1971–2000), recent (2001–2010) and future (2020–2050) climate scenarios were considered and compared. The analysis showed positive anomalies both for minimum and maximum temperatures and a decrease of precipitation for recent and future climate. The Gaussen-Bagnouls classification pointed out a change from humid to semi-humid climate during summer months. These data suggest a warming trend and increasing risk of summer aridity over the production area of GP cheese. The analysis of temperature-humidity index (THI), from past throughout the future scenario, highlighted an increased risk of heat stress for dairy cows. The worst THI condition was predicted for July of the future scenario when milk loss may reach a level of 7 kg/cow/day. The changes in climate may threat the potential to produce GP cheese, indirectly by the negative effect of precipitation deficit on crops yield for cows feeding, directly by the increase of heat stress-related milk loss. These findings may be of help to animate the debate on climate change-related impacts on regional food systems and support policymakers in developing adaptation strategies for the production system of GP cheese.HighlightsClimate is changing in the north Italy.Warming and aridity trend may threat the production of Grana Padano cheese.Adaptation measures are required.