Risk assessment in patients with Ph+ chronic myelogenous leukemia at first relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplant: an EBMT retrospective analysis

Patients with Ph+ chronic myelogenous leukemia who relapse after a first allogeneic stem cell transplant still have a possibility of long-term survival. To assess the value of the individual therapeutic options, the factors predicting outcome should be identified. We investigated data from 500 patients who relapsed before July 1996; follow-up was updated during 1998. The actuarial survival from relapse was 34.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 29.9%-38.5%) at 5 years and 23.4% (95% CI: 18.9%-27.9%) at 10 years. Survival after relapse was significantly related to 5 factors: time from diagnosis to transplant (< 2 years vs = 2 years), disease phase at transplant (first chronic phase vs other), disease stage at relapse (cytogenetic or chronic phase vs advanced phase), time from transplant to relapse (< 1 year vs = 1 year), and donor type (HLA-identical sibling vs volunteer unrelated donor). The effects of individual adverse risk factors were cumulative: The probability of survival at 10 years decreased stepwise from 42% (0 factors), 32% (1 factor), 14% (2 factors), 3% (3 factors), to 0% (4 or 5 factors). Novel strategies for high-risk patients are warranted. We conclude that these 5 factors should be taken into account when comparing results of salvage therapies in patients with Ph+ chronic myeloid leukemia relapsing after allogeneic stem cell transplant.