Time-series analysis of ambient PM2.5and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits in Lima, Peru during 2010–2016

Introduction: There have been no time-series studies of air pollution in Peru. Here we evaluate the effect of ambient PM_2.5on emergency room (ER) visits in Lima. Methods: We estimated daily PM_2.5levels at a 1 km²resolution during 2010–2016 using ground measurements, satellite data, and chemical transport model simulations. Population-weighted average daily PM_2.5levels were calculated for each district in Lima (n= 40), and assigned to patients based on residence. ER visits for respiratory and circulatory diseases were gathered from nine large public hospitals. Poisson regression was used to estimate the rate ratio for daily ER visits with change in daily PM_2.5, controlling for meteorology, time trends, and district. Results: For each interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM_2.5, respiratory disease ER visits increased 4% (95% CI: 0–5%), stroke visits 10% (3–18%), and ischemic heart disease visits (adults, 18–64 years) 11% (−1, 24%). Districts with higher poverty showed significantly stronger associations of PM_2.5and respiratory disease ER visits than districts with lower poverty. Effects were diminished 24–42% using Lima-wide instead of district-specific PM_2.5levels. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5is associated with increases in ER visits in Lima for respiratory diseases and stroke, and among middle-aged adults, ischemic heart disease.