Arctic fox winter dietary response to damped lemming cycles estimated from fecal DNA

Climate-caused changes in prey abundance may alter predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic food web. Lemmings (Dicrostonyxspp.) are important prey for Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and their annual population fluctuations drive fox reproduction, creating strongly linked predator–prey population cycles. Winter diet directly impacts Arctic fox reproductive success, but winter prey diversity on the tundra is low. Strategies such as using the marine environment to scavenge seals have allowed Arctic foxes to persist during years of low lemming abundance. However, warming winters have decreased snowpack quality, preventing lemmings from reaching their previous high abundances, which may reduce their impact on predator dynamics. We investigated Arctic fox dietary response to lemming abundance by reconstructing Arctic fox winter diet in the low Arctic. Next-generation sequencing of fecal DNA, from samples (n= 627) collected at dens in winters of 2011–2018, identified prey both from terrestrial and marine environments. Despite lemming cycle damping, Arctic foxes still increased lemming consumption during years of higher lemming abundance. Alternative prey such as marine resources were consumed more during years of low lemming abundance, with up to 45% of samples containing marine resources in low lemming years. In addition, Arctic foxes consumed high proportions of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus), which may represent a new alternative prey, suggesting climate change may be creating new foraging opportunities. Changes in prey abundance illustrate how climate-caused disturbances are altering Arctic food-web dynamics. Dietary flexibility and availability of alternative prey may become increasingly important for Arctic predators as the Arctic continues to change.