Spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics in area, production, and yield of Ausrice in Bangladesh and its response to droughts from 1980 to 2018

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world. The pre-monsoon Ausrice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing droughts. However, limited information on the changes in Ausrice as well as droughts hamper our understanding of the country’s agricultural resilience and adaption to droughts. Here, we collected all the official statistical data of Ausrice at the district level from 1980 to 2018, and examined the interannual variations of area, yield, and production. The results showed both area and production of Ausrice decreased significantly (61.58×103ha yr−1and 17.21 ×103M. tons yr−1, respectively), while yield increased significantly (0.03 M. tons ha−1yr−1). We also found a significantly increasing trend of droughts in 88% of area based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data, especially in those rainfed agricultural areas. Moreover, we found significant positive correlations between PDSI and Ausrice area (production) in 33 (25) out of 64 districts. There is hardly a relationship between PDSI and yield, likely due to the improved management and increasing irrigated areas. Implementing continuous drought monitoring, combined irrigation (surface and groundwater) systems, and conservation and precision agriculture are highly recommended in these drought-prone districts to ensure food security in Bangladesh.