Abstract 15349: Factors Associated With Progression of Latent Rheumatic Heart Disease

Introduction:Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis improves outcomes for children diagnosed with latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD). However, many children with latent RHD show improvement without prescription of prophylaxis. The objective of this study was to determine if specific sociodemographic or echocardiographic features are associated with progression of latent RHD.Methods:This is a retrospective analysis of the GOAL Trial, a randomized controlled trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis in children with latent RHD conducted in Uganda. Sociodemographic and echocardiographic variables were collected at trial entry. Progression was defined by a change in echocardiographic category according to the World Heart Federation Criteria (WHF; normal, borderline RHD, mild definite RHD, moderate/severe RHD), determined by consensus of a blinded 4-member adjudication panel. The association of risk factors with progression were calculated as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression models adjusted for the randomized treatment arm and the stratification variable (definite/borderline RHD).Results:Outcomes for the 799 children who completed the GOAL Trial were included in this analysis. Female sex (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.19-5.68, p=0.016) and poorer socioeconomic conditions (WAMI Index 0-1 with 1 being the least deprived, OR 0.48 for every 0.10-point increase) were associated with progression. There was no difference in risk of progression or regression between those with borderline RHD or mild definite RHD.Conclusions:Females and those living in less advantaged conditions were more likely to show progression of latent RHD. The strength of these associations was relatively low and does not warrant restricting prophylaxis to subgroups based on risk factors. The lack of difference in progression risk between those with borderline and those with definite RHD may impact revisions of the World Heart Federation Criteria for latent RHD diagnosis and calls into question the use of the term ‘borderline RHD’.